In 2008, Democrats will graduate Electoral College with honors

Karl Rove and his minions may have effectively stolen two elections, but their luck has just run out. Not only has George W. Bush dragged down the entire party so much so that even members of his own party are ready to bolt, but if you do some simple math (W might call it "fuzzy math"), it is inconceivable for the Democrats to lose in 2008, regardless of the nominee.

Clinton or Obama, Edwards or Biden...it really doesn't matter. Will Americans elect a black president? A woman? Again, it doesn't matter. As long as we still have to go to the Electoral College, the odds favor just about any Democrat, save Dennis Kucinich.

If the GOP were to sweep the South, including our friends down in Florida, it wouldn't be enough, so long as Hillary, Barack, or any of the prospective Democratic nominees could hang on and win Ohio. Even if they lost Pennsylvania, the Dems would win by a margin of 272-261 in the Electoral College. The Republicans would have to pull off wins in both Ohio and Pennsylvania to have a chance. Winning one of the two is not impossible, but sweeping both of those states, considering the huge numbers that could turn out for Democrats in places like Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia, it is unlikely. The Dems could lose Ohio, but hold on to Pennsylvania and still manage a 273-260 win. Even better, if the GOP did somehow win both Ohio and Pennsylvania, they could still lose if the Democrats were successful in stealing Missouri, Indiana or Tennessee and another smaller state, worth no fewer than seven Electoral Votes. If they grab any two of those three first states, the game is over, irrespective of OH and PA. In fact, if the Democrats were to lose those two big prizes and fail to win the Missouris or Indianas to make up for it, the election still goes to the Democrat if they simply take Florida. That's right. The Democrats could lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Tennessee and a smaller state and still comfortably win the election by snagging Florida (279-254). Essentially then, the GOP has to win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida to have a fighting chance in 2008. Anything short of that, and they are as good as toast. If the Democrats win just one of those three, they are home free.

The Republicans will still enjoy huge advantages in the South, but if the Democrats make even the most modest inroads and pick off one or two states down there, the GOP will not only stand to lose this election, but it could portend a serious shift in Electoral politics over the next generation. The GOP's task is getting harder because Red States are turning Purple and Blue States are getting bluer. New Hampshire is now solidly Blue. New Mexico is trending more Democratic lately. Colorado is getting bluer by the minute. Florida is too close to call and even states like Virginia and North Carolina can't be counted as sure things for the GOP anymore. What is more, the GOP has no chance at picking off Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, California, Oregon, Washington, Michigan, or Minnesota. Iowa and Wisconsin should be pretty reliably in Democratic control, especially after this disastrous presidency. All of New England will vote for the Democrat, bar none. Even Republican Governor Jodi Rell of Connecticut can't stop her state's Democratic presidential bias.

When you do the math, assuming widespread voter fraud and/or vote tampering is prevented through much closer scrutiny, and given the current Electoral College distribution according to traditional party strengths, the odds strongly favor the Democrats. If you have a female (Hillary) or a black candidate (Obama), that only increases the likelihood that you will turn out the vote in those large metropolitan centers in the Northeast, Midwest, and Pacific Coast.

As a point of interest, if you throw a guy like Michael Bloomberg in the race, more than likely, he would not have a chance at breaking into the Electoral College. However, he could impact the overall vote in key states. This is what could potentially give the GOP that slimmest of chances to sweep the critical Big Three (FL, OH, and PA). Bloomberg, if he were to win any Electoral Votes, it would most likey be from New York. If he fractures the vote enough there and pulls in enough from vote-rich New York City, he could effectively reel in those 31 Electoral Votes. If he did that, all bets are off and this goes into the House.

If that happened, Bloomberg could not win, because the House would have to decide among the top two highest Electoral Vote-getters.

This would be why re-electing a Democratic House would be vitally important - other than helping to serve the interests of the new Democratic president. However, if an election goes to the House, it's not one vote for each new House member...it's one vote per state. That means that it's not enough to simply have more Democrats. You need to have Democrats with a controlling interest among, at the very least, 26 state delegations in the House. You could, in theory, have a 224-214 Democratic Majority in the House, but if most of those ten additional Democrats are found in states like New York or California, the GOP could still end up controlling a majority of the state delegations. The Democrats could have the overall majority in House membership, yet have controlling interest of only 24 state delegations. If that happened, that would be bad, as it could give the GOP presidential nominee a slim 26-24 House victory.

Chances are we don't have to worry. I don't think Bloomberg will run. He will only run, I believe, if he thinks he can win. If it is clearly explained to him that he can't win as an Independent, no matter how many billions he can spend, it may be enough to make him reconsider. He is an opportunist. This is the Democrat who became a Republican, only because he knew it would help his chances to get a major party nomination for the general election ballot in New York. If Bloomberg does run, it won't be as an Independent. He'd run as a Democrat, because he'd stick to his core beliefs and he knows how unpopular the GOP is now.

Might be interesting. We've all heard about the all-New York battle - Hillary vs. Rudy? What about Bloomberg v. Giuliani? The last two New York City mayors going at it for the White House? Now that would be classic. Can you imagine that? Exactly. Neither can I.

You heard it here first. The Democrats will win in 2008. Even Michael Moore, in an interview, when asked what he would think if the Republicans won again in 2008, replied, "Now you just said something that is physically impossible - the Republicans winning in 2008!"

Unless Gore gets into this thing, which I doubt, Hillary R. Clinton will be our new president come January 20, 2009. I'll explain why in a later post.