Hillary or Obama?

"Consider Obama" - those were the words written in bold letters on a sign at Mack's Apples, just around the corner from my sister's house in New Hampshire. Mr. Mack, as of late, has been notorious for his signs. Some of his signs regarding gay marriage, the war in Iraq, and other issues have been quite provocative. The former Republican turned fervent Democrat appears to represent a growing trend in New Hampshire. What was once a red state has now become solidly blue and seems to be more closely emulating its more liberal neighbor to the South, Massachusetts. It's safe to say that all of New England is likely the bluest of the blue regions in the country.


So should we consider Obama? I have a few reservations about him. First of all, he is the flavor of the month. He is all about the hype and I don't like hype. Why get on the bandwagon for the sake of getting on the bandwagon? Secondly, politically, he is still very green. Now is not the time for someone without experience. We tried that before, didn't we...? His name was W. Though arguably, Obama would at least have his heart in the right place. Here in Massachusetts, we've seen some of the consequences of electing a newbie to a lofty position.

Governor Deval Patrick swept the Commonwealth by storm - he would be the first black governor of Massachusetts and he was young and energetic and he had lots of great ideas...and best of all, he wasn't Mitt Romney or Kerry Healey. After he took office, Deval made several missteps. Not the least among these was ordering the most expensive car as his official transportation, buying high-end drapes for his office (all with state money) and making courtesy phone calls to state agencies on behalf of a company in which he held stock. Also, some of those promises he made? He backpedaled, citing that there was less in the budget than he thought. Yet he saw enough money in the budget to buy those high-end luxury items. It was so bad that Patrick had to make a public apology and plead for the state's forgiveness - asking that they bear with him and give him a chance. Since then, he's recovered, but you can bet people will be watch him much more closely now.

Finally, Obama's record isn't squeaky clean either and there is plenty of dirt his opposition can scare up which could be very effective in derailing his campaign. Obama may in fact, have an electability problem.


If the past is any guide, Hillary will win the nomination. Just ask 2004 Democratic nominee Howard Dean or 2000 Democratic nominee Bill Bradley. Dean and Bradley shared a common thread - they were supposed to be the great alternative - the anti-Establishment candidates who would take the party and the country by storm. Instead, Dean is the Chairman of the Democratic Party and Bradley, well...he's still just writing books. You see the same thing happen on the Republican side. John McCain, in 2000, back when he still commanded any shroud of respect from both sides of the aisle, was seen as the anti-Bush. He was going to take back the Republican Party and crush Dubya, the Chosen One. Well, we all know how that turned out, unfortunately.

The point is, no matter how much money you raise and how big a darling you are in the eyes of the media, you won't win the nomination if you aren't the favorite of the party establishment. Obama's stock will continue to rise and Hillary's campaign will be left for dead and then all of a sudden, the media will turn on Obama, in much the same way they did Dean, and this will help Hillary cruise all the way to the nomination we all knew she was going to get anyway. Remember when John Kerry was considered a goner? There was no way he'd stop Dean's momentum! Er, yeah...right. The media brought Kerry back from the dead after repeatedly and unapologetically playing Dean's charismatic rally over and over again and making him out to be some chronic screamer. Gary Hart was supposed to steal former Vice President and presumptive nominee Walter Mondale's thunder, but then came those photos (though admittedly, Gary Hart was just plain stupid, too). Many a Republican hoped to rob poor Bob Dole of his claim on a major presidential candidacy in 1996, but despite his fumbling and bumbling, it was Dole who got to face off in the dubious role as sacrificial lamb to Bill Clinton, not any of the young GOP upstarts running that year. You would need to go way back to 1976 to when Jimmy Carter first ran, before you could find an example of a case where a presumptive party favorite failed to claim the nomination. Who knew a modest farmer from Georgia would take the world by storm? Back then, it can be argued, times were different and the major political parties did in fact have a little bit of wiggle room for the new guy.

John McCain will still likely win the Republican nomination. Don't let Rudy's rise and McCain's current problems fool you. Don't believe for a minute that the Establishment takes Romney seriously. He's reinvented himself so many times, the GOP can't take their chances on him.

At the end of the day, this will be Hillary's nomination to lose. The most compelling reason not to support Obama is because he won't be the nominee. Why waste our time? Hillary offers some distinct advantages.

First, Hillary has far more experience than Obama. She's been in the Senate slightly longer, but don't forget that she was in the White House for eight years already. She played much more of a role in both domestic and foreign affairs than some may even realize.


Hillary's claim to both the Northeast and the Midwest will help her. If she selects a strong Southern male (not John Edwards) as her running-mate, she can effectively triangulate the Electoral map. Remember, John Kerry almost won the 2004 Election. If he had only picked up Ohio, he would have been our president. It's no coincidence that Hillary is more popular among blacks than Obama. That has largely to do of course with the fact that Bill was often regarded as "America's First Black President". Ironically, I believe she would be far more effective in getting blacks out to vote than Obama. Women, especially younger women, would gravitate towards her as well.

Hillary also has much of the cultural and liberal political establishment behind her. Hollywood (Steven Spielberg), corporate America (Warren Buffett and others), Silicon Valley (the people at Google, for example) and Democratic big whigs (including her own husband Bill of course - and believe me - he's still got "it"), and the progressive arm of the media are all mobilized in the concerted effort to give Hillary the win. They are all invested and they are not in this to lose either. They all have a lot riding on her nomination and ultimately, her election. Sure, some of them will dance with Obama, but at the end of the day, they really only ever had eyes for Hillary.

That said...is Hillary electable. I'll get to that in another post.